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Cosmic Variance

Friday, January 06, 2006

LuboŇ° Motl: Second or third warmest year#links

Lubos Motl on his blog talks about
2005: second or third warmest year#links

This guy clearly has not the slightest idea about statistics. He talked about the Brownian Movement as a statistical model to describe temperature fluctuations. That's completely wrong. Temperatures fluctuate around an average level, but Brownian Movements do not circulate around a central location. Given sufficient time, a particle doing Brownian Movements can drift away from its original place an arbitrarily long distance away. That is not the case for temperature.

Lubos immediately erased my comment after I pointing out his mistake, therefore embarrassing him. This poor young man. He still doesn't get why he was wrong!


At 6:02 PM, Blogger Lumo said...

Haha, I liked your idea to pretend that you own Cosmic Variance - it almost looks identical. I am not sure whether Clifford et al. will be happy that a moronic crackpot has stolen their brand. ;-)

The statement that you can't view the climate as a sequence of independent variations around an "average" is the whole point of these "long-term persistence" findings.

The actual drifting away from the center is actually finite in reality because the exponent is smaller than for the Brownian case, but it is still much higher than the assumption of independent variations: there are correlations at all scales.

There are trends at all time scales but your brain is obviously not sufficient to get these points.

Brownian "movement" is normally called "Brownian motion".

At 12:15 AM, Blogger Quantoken said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

At 12:20 AM, Blogger Quantoken said...


You must be kidding. I do not pretend to own Cosmic Variance. It is a fact that I own the Cosmic Variance Blog. Meanwhile Clifford & Sean own Cosmic Variance the DOT COM, not the blog. You can't confuse the two, they look completely different.

I am not sure if any one actually has stolen anything from Clifford. They do not own the Trade Mark. I do. I paid $75 to officially registered the fictitious name Cosmic Variance.

You still do not get it. Temperature Fluctuation and Brownian Movements follow completely different statistical models. Brownian movement can move virtually infinite distance, a dust particle in England can drift to American continent and drift on, but temperature can not fluctuate too much away from the norm.

At 12:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Incidentally, do you know the NPA alliance?


They have exactly the same opinions and knowledge about physics as you have, and they also allow you to publish you work that is persecuted by the imperialist mainstream physics.


At 5:43 PM, Anonymous mathjunkie said...


Are you a physics professor? I think your physics knowledge should let you earn a faculty position at Princeton or MIT as Lumo has got one at Harvard.

At 2:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Quantoken, you are really a painful asshole if you need to write these things about yourself signed by fictitious usernames.

The Cosmic Variance team can also sue you and completely destroy you because what you're doing it crime.


At 8:50 AM, Blogger Cosmic Variance said...


You probably have no idea that registered fictitious names are protected by the law. Go ahead and ask the CosmicVariance the DOT COM team sue me. Let's see what happens. At the end of day I first registered cosmicvariance.blogspot.com so I rightfully have the right to use it. They want this domain name they better pay for it.

At 4:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


What I love about this new blog is that it is not an ego trip for a bunch of petty dictators who think they can suppress all alternatives by threatening to sue.

Keep up the good work!

The more angry they get, the harder your messages hits home!


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